• "JUE Insight: College Student Travel Contributed to Local COVID-19 Spread" with Paul Niekamp, Journal of Urban Economics, 2022
  • Abstract +

    Due to the suspension of in-person classes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, students at universities with earlier spring breaks traveled and returned to campus while those with later spring breaks largely did not. We use variation in academic calendars to study how travel affected the evolution of COVID-19 cases and mortality. Estimates imply that counties with more early spring break students had a higher growth rate of cases than counties with fewer early spring break students. The increase in case growth rates peaked two weeks after spring break. Effects are larger for universities with students more likely to travel through airports, to New York City, and to popular Florida destinations. Consistent with secondary spread to more vulnerable populations, we find a delayed increase in mortality growth rates. Lastly, we present evidence that viral infection transmission due to college student travel also occurred prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Media Coverage: ABC News, Forbes, Inside Higher Ed, MSN, NC Policy Watch, New York Times, NPR, POLITICO

  • "Personal Finance Education Mandates and Student Loan Repayment," Journal of Financial Economics, 2022
  • Abstract +

    This paper estimates the impact of requiring high school students to complete personal finance education on federal student loan repayment behavior after college. I merge student loan borrowing and repayment data from the College Scorecard with data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System on counts of high school graduates enrolling in college from different states. I estimate the causal effect of personal finance education mandates by relating the change in the share of university students subject to a state mandate to changes in university cohort student loan outcomes. I find only students with higher-income parents respond by adjusting borrowing, reducing median balances by 7%. By contrast, first-generation and low-income borrowers bound by mandates did not significantly adjust borrowing, but were nonetheless more likely to pay down balances. Repayment improvements are in part due to better understanding of the terms governing federal student loans. State mandates that incorporate career research alongside personal finance education are associated with better student loan repayment than those focused only on personal finance education.

    Media Coverage: CNBC, Policy Genius

Working Papers

  • "The Marginal Congestion of a Taxi in New York City" with Alejandro Molnar (second round revisions requested, American Economic Review)
  • Abstract +

    We exploit the partial deregulation of New York City taxi medallions to provide a causal estimate of the impact of taxi supply on congestion. We employ taxi trip records to measure historical street-level speed. We find that the roll-out of newly authorized taxis caused a local 8-9% decrease in speed. We estimate an empirical congestion elasticity curve from heterogeneous changes in speed and taxi supply, counted from aerial orthoimagery. Additionally, we provide novel urban sensor data to document a substantial traffic slowdown since 2013. Most of the slowdown in midtown Manhattan is accounted for by new supply from ridehail applications.

  • "Assessing the Relative Progressivity of the Biden Administration's Federal Student Loan Forgiveness Proposal" with Jacob Goss and Joelle Scally
  • Abstract +

    We quantify the total stock of balances eligible for the 2022 federal student loan forgiveness policy and explore which groups benefit most. Roughly $441 billion in balances are eligible for forgiveness, which would leave almost 40 percent of federal borrowers with no remaining balance. The borrowers who benefit most, as measured by the ratio of forgiven balances to balances held, are younger, have lower credit scores, and live in lower-income neighborhoods. Compared to other salient fiscal policies, the forgiveness policy distributes less benefit to lower income ZIP codes than the Earned Income Tax Credit, but more benefit to lower income ZIP codes than the 2019 Child Tax Credit and the 2019 education tax credits for higher education. Lastly, we note a recent uptick in credit card and auto loan delinquency for student loan borrowers that may portend more widespread payment difficulties for borrowers if payments resume without relief.

  • "You're Not You When You're Hungry: Measuring The Impact of a Supplemental Nutrition Program on Childhood Test Scores"
  • Abstract +

    I estimate the impact of a supplemental nutrition intervention on math and language arts test scores at low-income elementary schools in the Mississippi Delta. The intervention provided meals to students in order to replicate school breakfast and lunch over the course of the weekend. Using a difference-in-differences design, I estimate the effect of the intervention on the mean and the distribution of test scores. I find that treated students performed better on both language arts and math standardized tests. The average gains stem from a reduction in the share of students achieving at the lowest threshold and shifts toward higher thresholds. I also use administrative daily attendance data to estimate how the intervention affected attendance by day of the week. Attendance on Fridays improved likely due to the transfer incentive, however I find improvements in attendance on Mondays and Tuesdays which is evidence of improved nutrition over the course of the weekend.

  • "Expectations and Follow-Through: The Roles of Confidence and Non-Cognitive Skills for Self-Employment" with Carmen Astorne-Figari and Andrew Hussey
  • Abstract +

    We examine the predictors of both long-term expectations of self-employment and future self-employment activities and earnings among the same individuals, with a particular focus on gender differences and the roles of non-cognitive skills. Using longitudinal data from the GMAT Registrant Survey, which includes prospective graduate management students, our analysis involves wide-ranging and novel sets of variables, including work-life balance and job preferences, self-efficacy, confidence, and other non-cognitive skills or characteristics. We find notable differences in the drivers of self-employment and self-employment expectations between men and women, and also large differences in the set of variables that relate to self-employment intentions versus future self-employment outcomes. While preferences for work-life balance matter more for men's expectations, preferences about non-monetary characteristics of the job, such as job security and interesting work, matter more for women. In contrast, regarding actual self-employment, only non-cognitive skills play a substantial role for women, while men are driven mostly by preferences over work-life balance. Confidence in one's quantitative skills influences self-employment decisions, especially for women, and it also affects success in both the self-employed and the traditionally employed sectors, as reflected in earnings.

Works in Progress

  • "Traffic Externalities of E-commerce Delivery", with Alejandro Molnar

  • "Impacts from Financial Aid Shocks: Evidence from Changes to Pell Grant Generosity"

The views and findings expressed here are those of the author's and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.